Scenarios for co-creation of the future with effectuation

    Publicatie van Kenniscentrum Business Innovation

    A.F. Wild,de, P. Hakvoort | Boekdeel | Publicatiedatum: 15 december 2020
    Effectuation is a theory originating in the literature of entrepreneurship, that focuses on behavioral attitudes of founders of multiple companies with over 15 years of experience and proven superior performance, so-called expert entrepreneurs. It includes a set of decision-making principles that these expert entrepreneurs apply in situations of uncertainty: start with resources in your control and set your goal later, commit in advance how much you are willing to spend and can afford to lose, form partnerships within your network and those who are committed, turn mistakes into positive learning outcomes and instead of predicting the future, co-create it. By stating these decision-making principles, it becomes clear that effectuation is diametrically opposed to the principles of causation that operate under a prediction-based logic, setting goals first and as a starting point, then looking for the necessary resources and then aiming to achieve these preset goals. Both the effectuation and causation approaches are part of havo and vwo Business Economics curricula and assessed in exams since 2020. Additionally, effectuation principles are closely aligned with trends in higher professional education to become more design-, experimentation- and implementation-oriented when doing final research papers, and with trends in business practice based on lean start-up principles. The increasing need for effectuation is driven by the fact that, with increasing uncertainty, future outcomes become more difficult to predict (Knightian uncertainty), human preferences are becoming increasingly more complex and volatile (goal ambiguity) and, due to ever increasing amounts of information accessible, it becomes more challenging to prioritize and determine what deserves attention in a decision-making environment (environmental isotropy). With that being said, the future adoption of effectuation in practice and education depends on two driving forces. The first driving force concerns the degree of uncertainty that organizations face, measured by the number and type of organizations that will face an environment where they cannot know the consequences of their actions. The second driving force concerns the degree of goal ambiguity that entrepreneurs, managers and other organizational roles face, measured by the number of actors facing an inability to decide. Four future scenarios are identified, among which two extremes. One extreme is a scenario in which effectuation becomes the standard for disruptive startups (NICHE), in the other effectuation becomes a widely accepted, generic approach to management problems (OMNIPRESENCE). The future adoption of effectuation will affect universities of applied sciences by shaping education to become more design-oriented, requiring different professional attitudes from students and teaching staff, and by the construction of graduation programs that focus on the implementation of solutions and on the completion of the regulatory cycle.

    Auteur(s) - verbonden aan Hogeschool Rotterdam

    Betrokken bij deze publicatie